Over the Holiday you might have missed three valuable local news stories regarding the Van Drew\’s Party Switch, Brigid\’s Campaign for Congress, and NJ-2.
– On 12/22 – Tom Moran, the Star Ledger\’s Editorial Editor wrote the following piece
:
\”Meet the Woman Who Wants to Make Van Drew Pay for His Sins\”
https://www.nj.com/opinion/2019/12/meet-the-woman-who-wants-to-make-van-drew-pay-for-his-sins-moran.html
Moran
writes,
\”
Harrison is designed for this moment. A moderate Democrat with lifelong roots in the district, she is a super smart woman who
moved faster than all the boys
to secure the support of six county chairmen within a few days of Van Drew’s betrayal.\”
– On 12/23 – David Wildstein, New Jersey Globe published Brigid’s letter to each of Democratic County Chairs in NJ-2
.
It has been a very fast moving couple of weeks, so thought the timeline and context showcased in the letter would be helpful to understand the quick developments we have seen in NJ-2.
– On 12/19 – On the heels of Van Drew\’s party-switch, polling already showed 60% of respondents stated that “someone new” should be elected, and only 24% said that Van Drew “deserves to be re-elected.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/19/jeff-van-drew-anti-impeachment-democrat-flips-to-republican-party.html
Republicans Uphill Battle In NJ-02
Republicans face a significant challenge holding onto New Jersey’s Second Congressional District and Congressman Jefferson Van Drew’s party switch does not improve their chances in November. Beyond the vulnerabilities on display in his own internal polling, Van Drew’s party switch has further weakened him as a candidate: he enters 2020 despised by Democrats, distrusted by Republicans, and likely viewed poorly by independents who watched him swap identities for political gain. His reputation as an independent voice for South Jersey was prefaced on the mirage he held any core beliefs, but he has undermined that image by earning
coverage
of his
politically
motivated
party switch.
Southern New Jersey Democrats were already motivated to challenge Van Drew because of his very public attacks on other Democrats. His decision to join the Republican Party only increases Democratic voter motivation in the district.
The Primary Will Weaken The Eventual Republican Nominee
President Trump’s support of Van Drew is far from assured. After making his initial announcement, Van Drew loses most of his political value to the White House. And most Trump White House political endorsements
only
consist
of
a
boiler-plate
tweet.
But even with President Trump’s support, Van Drew is far from certain to prevail in the Republican primary.
His Republican primary opponents have
indicated
that they all intend to stay in the race despite Van Drew’s party switch.
David Richter, a wealthy candidate with the ability to
self-fund
and pose a serious challenge to Van Drew even without establishment support, has stated he is staying in the race. Richter has already made the NRCC’s “On The Radar” list, so House Republicans’ campaign arm will have to choose whom they support.
Since Van Drew’s party switch, Richter
affirmed
his willingness to spend $1 million of his own money on the race, which is more funding than Van Drew currently has on hand.
Richter has already begun
attacking
Van Drew. Richter went on local talk radio Wednesday morning and argued that the Republican establishment was “trying to clear the field for [Van Drew] now to get the Republican nomination because he can’t win a primary, he can’t defend his own record.”
Van Drew’s Democratic voting record provides an outsized target for Republican candidates to attack
Van Drew has voted
against
President Trump 93 percent of the time; including votes
against
border wall funding, a vote
condemning
Trump’s remarks about four congresswomen as racist, and a vote
limiting
federal spending at properties owned by President Trump.
He’s also voted against some of Trump’s signature policies, including
against
the Administration’s ban on transgender members of the military,
against
the Administration’s rule to block abortion providers from Title X funding, and
against
the Administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Van Drew has a
100% rating
with Planned Parenthood. A liability in a Republican primary defined by a president who selected a vice president who attempted to
shut down
the government over Planned Parenthood funding.
Van Drew spoke at a
protest against
the Trump Administration’s pursuit of seismic testing, expressing his disappointment that Trump would support the testing.
Van Drew’s decades as a Democrat also provide plenty of damaging soundbites and quotations about the Democratic party for opponents to weaponize. We’re happy to
share
some
here
.
Van Drew’s position on impeachment doesn’t mean he is an ally of President Trump
The Daily Beast
reports
that prior to Van Drew’s party switch he was “obsessively Anti-Trump” and even called Trump “crazy.”
Van Drew
endorsed
Cory Booker for President in the 2020 election (something David Richter has already noted in his attacks as well).
General Election Issues
If Van Drew is able to win the Republican nomination, he enters the general election with serious vulnerabilities. His own internal general election polling from December 7-10 includes several data points that demonstrate the difficulty he will face competing in a general election:
In a general election sample, only 31 percent of voters believe he should be re-elected. 48 percent want someone new.
President Trump has lost ground since winning NJ-02 by 4.6 points in 2016. In a general election sample his favorability is even and voters are split on whether he deserves to be re-elected.
In Summary
Congressman Van Drew tried to change his values because his own polling showed he completely alienated the Democratic base and was on track to lose his primary. Now, by switching parties, he has further motivated that base, tied himself entirely to President Trump, and will have to explain a voting record that is out of step with Republican primary voters in NJ-02. We wish him the best of luck and are confident that Democrats are in a strong position to win this seat in 2020.
source press release