All games involving chance have variance – runs of good or bad luck that impact results in the short run. While skill matters over time, variance can make a huge difference session-to-session or even hand-to-hand. Every SkyCrown player experiences variance, whether a newbie playing penny slots or a seasoned pro betting big at the felt. So why does variance happen and how should players respond?
Reason of Variance
Variance relates to the inherent randomness in games of chance. Over a small sample size, unlikely events occur more often. While the odds even out over hundreds of thousands of hands, spins, or rolls, players face variance in the short run.
Here are key reasons variance happens:
- Randomness – All gambling games have random elements that impact results. Random number generators drive slot machine spins. Dealt cards, rolled dice and spun roulette wheels all incorporate randomness. No matter how consistent the odds, random outcomes fuel variance.
- Independent Trials – Each hand, spin, roll, or bet stands independent of those before or after it. Winning or losing one round does not impact what happens next. This independence allows for extreme ups and downs as chance drives outcomes.
- Odds and Probabilities – While the house maintains an edge in all games, players still win 45-55% of hands, spins, etc. in many games. Odds payout more for hard-to-hit long shots too. So results vary wildly in the short run even as the odds even out over time.
Prepare Mentally for Variance
Because variance fuels extreme swings, players should prepare mentally:
- Expect variance – Understand that ups and downs simply happen, even to seasoned pros. Don’t expect smooth sailing or steady results.
- Take the long view – Judge play based on long term results, not what happens session-to-session or even week-to-week.
- Play at a comfortable level – Only risk money you can afford to lose on any given day. Bankroll management lessens the stress of variance.
- Keep emotions in check – Big wins or losses often trigger strong emotional reactions. Take a break or stop playing if you feel euphoric, angry, or chased.
Respond to Variance
All players respond differently to variance. Some tips include:
- Review play for mistakes – While variance causes results to change, players should avoid playing differently during upswings or downswings. Evaluate if poor play decisions contributed to losses instead of blaming it all on luck.
- Take a break – Stepping away from play for a period lets emotions cool down. Some days nothing goes right no matter what.
- Talk it out – Discussing feelings with a friend or making notes in a journal can provide an outlet when variance gets you questioning the highs and lows of gambling.
- Stick to the plan – Have a clear gambling budget and play at limits where you feel comfortable. Avoid chasing losses by throwing good money after bad. If bored or frustrated, call it a day.
While variance can feel like a rollercoaster, players can take steps to mitigate the impacts. Understanding why variance happens, thinking long-term, managing bankrolls and playing with discipline helps bettors ride out the inevitable ups and downs. Avoid blaming all wins on skill and all losses on bad luck. Variance evens out over time. Making smart bets, avoiding tilt and controlling emotions allows players to weather variance storms.
Manage Bankrolls in the Face of Variance
Bankroll management refers to only risking an amount you can afford to lose gambling on any given day. Variance makes it impossible to predict day-to-day results. Even the best players face dry spells. Bankrolls act as a buffer against the ups and downs of variance.
Key bankroll management tips when variance strikes:
- Set a gambling budget based on overall finances
- Divide bankroll by maximum session length to determine affordability
- Only risk 1-5% of total bankroll per session
- Reduce bet sizes and game stakes during losing streaks
- Take a break instead of chasing losses to try recouping
- Rebuild bankroll before playing at higher limits again
- Be prepared to walk away on bad days
Following bankroll management best practices allows players to endure variance without damaging their finances or chasing losses.